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Will the 2019-20, 2020-21 seasons affect the development of young talent?


Salros

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I’ve been thinking about this question as our Amateur Draft progressed. We all seem to agree this draft class is very strong. But there are some strong headwinds facing this group, I believe. If it wasn’t for Seattle’s expansion, I say the future looked bleak for the prospects outside the 1st round. Here’s what I’m looking at:

 

1) Active players in their late twenties/ early thirties will have 2 seasons of partial play. That’s a lot fewer hits and wear n/ tear on aging bodies. I believe a number of elite players careers playing at their highest level will be extended.

2) The next tier of players will feel the pressure of elite prospects looking for fewer open places on teams.

3) How will shutting down of US college leagues affect some elite prospect’s development? This whole situation puts a lot of pressure on a team’s staff in charge of development. Those teams with the best staffs could become a real difference in how team’s prospect pools develop.

4) This present season, you’ll start seeing a logjam in the AHL. One positive, the semi-pro Leagues player quality should rise.

 

On the other side, a condensed schedule will increase a team’s need for goalies and defenseman.

 

I think all professional team sport leagues will see something similar develop. If older players play one season longer than most expected, the pipes full of developing talent could become a little clogged.

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I was thinking what you might see is possibly players not having as long careers. Even players playing well perhaps price themselves out. So you should see lower salaries. There are guys sitting on the sidelines hoping for contracts, that don't realize they are basically retired. With so much talent bursting at the seems, year after year, these players need to play somewhere. Perhaps you see a rival pro league. If travel restrictions come into play, perhaps it creates the need to reconstruct the whole thing as we now know it.

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I'm thinking for the most part, you will not see the likes of Chelios, Chara, Jagr and the many others who played 20+ seasons. You will see most of even the quality players go to 14 or 15 years at the most. There will be exceptions. Not to mention it takes a lot less time to bank the kind of money it took the earlier guys to pile up. I just think that there will be higher turnover in the coming years than we have ever seen before.

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The way I imagine it, when hockey starts up again I think the difference in skill between the young players and the aging vets will be at a gap wider than we've ever noticed. I think all this down time will have had an adverse effect on the older guys. And I think the caged youth will come out firing on all cylinders next season. 

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Today’s vet (28 to 35) have a window into fitness that has never been available. The best ones don’t need anymore motivation to stay ahead of the inexperienced youngsters than the feeling of being an NHL player. Vets are stronger, smarter than they have every been. The one thing the youngsters have in their favour, salary. So, you might be right if revenues drop and teams are forced to get more with less. But you already have talent that hasn’t had an opportunity to gain some experience in the NHL last season. And now you have a fantastic draft class that’s adding more talent than usual to be develop. Some players have to be left behind. Teams may not have the patience to give a player time to develop like they did before 2020. More talent will probably end up in Europe and the KHL. 

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