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Fantasy First Hockey Podcast


James

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  • 2 weeks later...

OK regarding the Binnington vs. Jarry vs. Vanecek conversation... the important piece of information that you didn't consider is average deviation.  In head-to-head, a goalie's predictability is almost as important as the actual tracked stats.  So if you look at how much, on average, Binnington performs better or worse than his average, you can judge his inconsistency...

 

image.png

 

That inconsistency can kill you in a matchup...

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Ya, that's a good way to look at it and it does show you how bad Binnington has been. Using our format's overall rating can be misleading. It was counter intuitive to see that Binnington had a higher rating than Jarry and Vanecek right off the bat and this clearly demonstrates what most people would assume is actually correct - When Binnington plays like shit, he goes all out. Good call.

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Binnington also does well in Fantrax rating by virtue of his GP (38 GP to Vanecek's 32 and Jarry's 27).  That gets him the appearance more saves (even though his saves per game is lower than Jarry) and more wins (even though his win percentage is way worse than the others.. .473 to Jarry's .592 and Vanecek's .656).  

 

Of course, GP is not an irrelevant stat here... his GP is his most valuable attribute, indicating his solidity as a #1 and his durability.

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On 1/30/2023 at 11:17 AM, James said:

OK regarding the Binnington vs. Jarry vs. Vanecek conversation... the important piece of information that you didn't consider is average deviation.  In head-to-head, a goalie's predictability is almost as important as the actual tracked stats.  So if you look at how much, on average, Binnington performs better or worse than his average, you can judge his inconsistency...

 

image.png

 

That inconsistency can kill you in a matchup...

Like the week I got 2 shutouts from Jones and Kuemper shit the bed hard so I lost GAA and SV% cats. that week.

 

I don't like this deviation business.  WIns and SVs. is the answer to goalies.  More come from more games played if you're not a goalie for Chicago.

 

The other 2 stats are crap shoots. Only a few goalies are predictable and consistent and it has to do with the team in front of them. But then a guy like Markstrom fucks that theory.

 

Wins and SV's will win you more weeks than GAA and SV%.

Suppression by sheer volume.

Too many times lately I looked down to see Francouz getting a start and me having no stats and no chance at stats. 

Can't win if you don't play. 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Re: takeaways… I think Scotty’s making valid points here. But I want stats that are easily found in multiple places (I.e. nhl.com, ESPN, tsn, etc). Are you able to find “first goals” there? The answer might be yes… I haven’t looked.

 

I also don’t want stats that count multiple times. Score a first goal and you’ve just gone +1 in 4 categories, maybe even 5 if it’s a shorty. (G, SOG, STG, +\-, in addition to first goal)
 

and I want stats where you get a lot in a week (more than 20, ideally, but I’ll settle for 10+). 
 

Takeaways checks those three boxes. 
 

you’ve got this fourth criterium of wanting to be able to see it visually. I get it, but those other three are more important, imo. 
 

find me an offensive stat that checks all four boxes and I’m game!

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6 hours ago, James said:

Re: takeaways… I think Scotty’s making valid points here. But I want stats that are easily found in multiple places (I.e. nhl.com, ESPN, tsn, etc). Are you able to find “first goals” there? The answer might be yes… I haven’t looked.

 

I also don’t want stats that count multiple times. Score a first goal and you’ve just gone +1 in 4 categories, maybe even 5 if it’s a shorty. (G, SOG, STG, +\-, in addition to first goal)
 

and I want stats where you get a lot in a week (more than 20, ideally, but I’ll settle for 10+). 
 

Takeaways checks those three boxes. 
 

you’ve got this fourth criterium of wanting to be able to see it visually. I get it, but those other three are more important, imo. 
 

find me an offensive stat that checks all four boxes and I’m game!


I maintain that if you can’t see a takeaway, you either don’t know hockey or aren’t looking hard enough! 

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