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originaljroc

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Everything posted by originaljroc

  1. Yeah, you could go incredibly complicated by bringing in all those stats and gain an even more accurate picture, but I think that's getting too complex for our purposes here. Time on ice would be even more accurate than games played, but PP goals is tough to quantify because who spent more time on the PP in their career? Who had more PP goals vs their PP time on the ice? Not sure if you can calculate that. Shooting percentage was ridiculously higher in Bossy's era, so I think the only true comparison of it is what I've already done: take the average goals against average of goalies in Bossy's era (I calculated this at work, so I don't have the numbers in front of me) and compare against the average of goalies in Ovie's era. It's almost exactly 1 goal a game higher in Bossy's era. I think the reason my math works just fine as a comparison is that it uses the two things that haven't changed at all in the history of hockey: Players take shots and score goals, and goalies make saves. Each era has different variables of how many saves vs. how many goals. You just need to use one as a control.. In this case, Bossy's era is being used as a control and you can pretty much teleport any player in NHL history into it using math. We are simply supposing that Ovechkin played with everyone he's always played with - they've all just been moved to Bossy's era. Ovechkin would still score the same percentage of his team's goals, hence how I came up with my figures. I bet Gretzky is higher than both, though.
  2. James nails it here. To add to his research, if you do the math, the goalies in Bossy's era allowed an average of almost exactly one more goal a game than those in Ovechkin's era. As James noted, Bossy averaged 0.76 goals a game over his career. Ovechkin has averaged 0.61 goals a game in 13 seasons with the Caps. The Caps have scored an average of 2.90 goals a game from 2005 to 2018. So, if those same teams were in Bossy's era, they'd have scored 3.90 goals a game. Over his career, Ovechkin has, on average, accounted for .209 percent of the Capitals' scoring, so if you correlate the math, he would have scored 210 more goals in Bossy's era (his .209 percentage of Washington's extra goal in every one of Ovie's 1003 games played). That would give Ovechkin 817 career goals or .815 per game, compared to Bossy's 0.76. So it's close, but Ovechkin is the better goal scorer. If I get time, I would like to do this for the Rocket, too.
  3. The numbers would seem to indicate otherwise. Different eras because the goalies are so much better now, so there's no way Ovechkin would score as many goals per season. However, while not a perfect correlation*, I think the most accurate comparison we can make between stats is if you examine the amount of shots on goal they've recorded (today's goalies stop way more than the tenders in the '80s). Bossy had 2709 shots in 752 NHL regular season games (3.60 per game). Ovechkin has 4896 shots in 1003 NHL regular season games (4.88 per game). * Was Bossy just more accurate or was there just more net to shoot at because the goalies had smaller equipment and didn't play the butterfly?
  4. I think that was one of the biggest upsets we've seen in a series in recent memory. If you evaluate their rosters player by player, the Jets are significantly better on paper. But they made too many mistakes, got almost nothing from Laine or Ehlers, and Fleury thoroughly outplayed Helleybuck. I'm trying to think of comparable Cinderella tales and the 1996 Florida Panthers spring to mind. If it's the Lightning that advance, though, once again, they are a large amount better than Vegas on paper. Nothing seems to shake this Vegas team, though.
  5. I agree, Winnipeg is the best team left on paper with Tampa being a close second. Vegas plays a fast game - they remind me of the Predators from a year ago - but let's face it, the biggest reason they're this far is Marc-Andre Fleury. Guy has been outstanding so far and will be the obvious Conn Smythe winner if they somehow get to the Cup.
  6. Kadri's hit was way more predatory and it's not even close. I even heard commentators on the radio debating if Wilson should have had anything, arguing his momentum carried the hit up into the head area. The fact he made contact with his head warrants a suspension, but you're overreacting on this one. You could also argue that the reason Wilson left his feet was due to momentum, too. Doesn't warrant more than a 1-game. He also did not hit a player in a vulnerable position. The Pittsburgh player turns and sees him coming. The guy Kadri hit - pure definition of a vulnerable position. Didn't see him coming, was down on the ice with his head against the boards. Kadri should have had twice the suspension that Wilson got.
  7. I think the Kadri one was more predatory and he only got 3. Wilson should have had less than that. 1 game would have been more appropriate.
  8. And personally I don't think they beat the Ducks or Oilers either last year, so we all have our opinions. That Pitt D without Letang last year was perhaps the worst to ever win a Cup. They certainly bucked a trend of how you would like to build a Cup contender.
  9. It can be! If you're up for a chuckle, read Down Goes Brown's piece on the draft lottery here: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/2018-draft-lottery-power-rankings/
  10. There's no denying the Pens have plenty of talent (although I will rip on their crappy defence all day), but they have had an easier road than most teams the past couple of seasons. They definitely live in the heads of their division opponents, which turns the Caps and Jackets into the Arizona Coyotes come playoff time. However, I really believe the Flyers would have taken them out this year if they had any goaltending whatsoever. You have to wonder how successful Pittsburgh would really be if they had to slog through the Western Conference. I give them full marks for the 2016 title (they were just way faster than everyone), but last year and this, I doubt they would make it out of the second round in the West. Of course, we'll never know because it's hypothetical, but the road Nashville had to go through last year (which led to injuries to some of their top players) was far tougher than Pitt's.
  11. Mine have been permanently in my junk mail all season, no matter how many times I tell my e-mail they're not junk (although any message from Byz is just that . So, check that. That's probably where they're going.
  12. That said about Chiarelli, I'm also in the don't panic camp. I think a lot of his moves have come from the pressure of a panicking fan base (I.e. We need a D and have to do whatever we can to get one - bye bye Hall and Barzal). Essentially the Oilers are this year's Avalanche, so sell off what makes sense but don't clean house. Still plenty of elite pieces on this team. I mean, they've outshot teams most nights this year and they rarely get beat on puck possession. Crazy breakdowns and the PK are killing them. Also don't think Talbot has been great this year. Maybe change up the goalie coach?
  13. I'm in the fire Chiarelli camp. It starts there. I don't trust him to make another deal.
  14. This Olympic hockey tournament is shaping up to be just a level above shinny. I'll probably still watch, though.
  15. Yup. Had that happen to me twice in the CFHL draft. Both Vasilevsky and Hellebuyck went one pick before I was going to take them. But my fallback picks were pretty good - Jack Eichel and Jacob Trouba.
  16. Still don't think Edmonton landed a face off specialist, though. That liability really showed up against the Ducks. I would be in favour of trading RNH because he's a $6M defensive centre who doesn't score enough and doesn't win enough draws. You could find a $3M guy to give the same production. But failing landing that guy, the Oilers should not trade RNH or their centre depth would be crap.
  17. That one takes the cake for worst of 2017. Maybe they thought he was only 28?
  18. I'm also shocked. It was the right call only taking the minimum amount of forwards, but I thought they go something like 5 goalies and 11 defencemen instead. But they must be convinced there isn't a trade market for goalies right now. The Mrazek and Grubauer passes remain head scratchers.
  19. Done. Thanks for all your hard work, as always, James. Hopefully slipping you that $20 will ensure my competitive advantage over your team in the PCFL ... er ... was that out loud?
  20. Great piece on the Travelling Jagrs in the Sun today ... http://www.calgarysun.com/2017/01/16/jaromir-jagr-meet-the-travelling-jagrs As a side note, I'm related to Ranger Jags through marriage, so I always get a chuckle when these guys are doing their thing. (He also played Jr A hockey in the late 90s for the Camrose Kodiaks of the AJHL).
  21. Yup. It's working on the desktop now. Thanks.
  22. Still think the jury is out on him big time. He was never THE guy in Edmonton as the quote in this article suggests. The Oilers had three players who were more go-to than he was when he came into the league. Never had to be THE guy and he couldn't succeed. It's because he didn't go into traffic. Didn't play defence. Didn't even score when he should have. Was invisible far too often. Perimeter players rarely find success in the NHL, but maybe he'll buck the trend in St. Louis. We'll see.
  23. I thought you all might find this interesting. The Great One decided to do a few laps at MacEwan University Griffins practice last night before the Oilers-Flames game. I love how the greatest player of all time is always trying to give back to the game at all levels: http://www.macewan.ca/wcm/CampusServices/Griffins/MHKY_GRETZKY
  24. And Trouba for less than 5 please.
  25. Such a good contract. Here I thought I would need to trade for cap space in HUEL to keep Kucherov. Lucky me.
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